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June House Price Index
Rate rises quash spring price bounce but activity holds up
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Your questions about house prices answered
The national average house price for March 2023 is £365,357. That’s 3% higher than a year ago.
We track how the price of property coming to market changes every month in our House Price Index. It’s the largest and most up-to-date view of what’s happening to property prices.
You can also use our Price Comparison Report to see an overview of your area.
The average asking price on Rightmove (how much a property’s listed for) has increased by 20% across Great Britain since 2019. This is because of an extremely busy market from the summer of 2020 through to the first quarter of 2022.
We’re now in a slower housing market, which means that we’re unlikely to see any significant price rises in 2023.
It’s hard to predict, but our experts think that we might see a price drop of around 2% nationally this year.
It’s important to remember that there are thousands of local markets where house prices differ from the national trend. These local markets can rise and fall. You can find out the average asking price in your area by checking our House Price Index report.
General inflation measures the price of goods and services bought by UK households.Typically, this means things like food and clothes. There are several ways to measure general inflation in the UK. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most common. It’s published by the Office for National Statistics every month.
People’s confidence levels in their individual financial position can be affected by general inflation. And this in turn can impact the demand to buy a home. However, inflation increasing or decreasing doesn’t necessarily mean that house prices will follow the same trend. This is because house prices can be affected by a number of related factors.
Supply and demand
Supply and demand is one of the key factors that affects house prices. It describes the level of demand there is for properties, compared with the supply, or number of homes there are available to buy.
House prices can also be affected by how easy it is to borrow money, as well as incentives from the government.
Over the past 20 years asking prices of homes across Great Britain have more than doubled, from just over £150,000 to over £365,000. This means that house price inflation has outpaced both general inflation and average salaries over the same period.
Compared with 2022, house asking prices have risen most in the North West and the North East regions of England, where they’ve increased by 4.7% since March last year. Liverpool is the city in the North West with the highest house price growth, with prices up 6% compared to last year. The town of Oldham experienced notable house price increases of 9%, as well as Bolton and Chester, which are both up by 7% compared with March 2022.
In the North East, the cities with biggest increases are Sunderland and Newcastle upon Tyne. Here house prices are up by 7% since last year, as well as Middlesborough with an increase of 6%.
|East of England||£415,836||£408,337||1.8%|
|Yorkshire and The Humber||£241,270||£230,935||4.5%|
*Our latest available asking price data from March 2023.
HM Land Registry updates their sold house prices data on the 20th day of each month. However, the time between the sale of a property and the registration of this information varies between a few weeks, and a number of months. Registers of Scotland processes the majority of cases within 35 days. So, in both cases, data for the two most recent months isn’t complete.
Once HM Land Registry and Registers of Scotland update their data, we typically update our sold prices within a few weeks, but this can sometimes take longer.
*At the moment, our sold house price data doesn’t cover homes in Northern Ireland.
House Price Index | Property blog
Rate rises quash spring price bounce but activity holds up
- Average new seller asking prices fall by £82 (-0.0%) this month to £372,812, the first monthly drop in asking prices this year and the first drop seen in the month of June since 2017:
- The delayed spring bounce in May has quickly turned into an earlier than usual summer price slowdown
- Asking prices set to fall in most months for the rest of the year in line with the usual seasonal pattern, and Rightmove still predicts an overall 2% annual drop in new seller average asking prices by the end of 2023
- Despite some significant increases in mortgage interest rates over the last few weeks, Rightmove’s statistics currently show no effect on buyer demand but a slight impact on sales activity:
- Buyer demand over the last two weeks is 6% higher than the same period in 2019’s more normal market
- The number of sales being agreed has dropped marginally, and in the last two weeks is 6% behind the same period in 2019 compared to being 3% behind in May
- The disorderly mortgage market is creating uncertainty among movers with more change expected this week:
- More prospective buyers are checking their latest affordability, with daily visits to Rightmove’s Mortgage in Principle service jumping by 53% since the unexpectedly high inflation figures
- Ahead of this week’s inflation figures and Bank of England Base Rate decision, the average rate for a 5-year fixed 85% Loan-to-Value mortgage at the time of writing is 5. 20%, up from 4.56% four weeks ago
Average new seller asking prices fall by £82 (-0.0%) this month to £372,812. This is the first monthly drop in new asking prices this year, and the first at this time of year since 2017. On average over the previous ten years we have seen an increase of 0.6% in asking prices at this time of year, indicating that buyer affordability constraints and more pricing realism from new sellers have brought forward the usual summer slowdown. There have been some significant increases in fixed mortgage interest rates over the last few weeks following stubbornly high inflation figures, piling pressure onto already very stretched budgets. These increases in rates and monthly mortgage payments may mean that some have to pause their plans for now. However, Rightmove’s latest snapshot of the market suggests the immediate impact on activity has been limited with most movers determined to carry on if they can still afford it.
“Average new seller asking prices, the first and leading indicator of new trends in the market, have dropped slightly this month, signalling that the belated spring price bounce has quickly turned into an earlier than usual summer slowdown. We expect asking prices to edge down during the second half of the year which is the normal seasonal pattern, and while we sometimes re-forecast our expectations for annual price changes at this time, current trends suggest that our original forecast of a 2% annual drop in asking prices at the end of 2023 is still valid. Agents report that new sellers are sitting in two camps – those who still have overoptimistic price expectations following the buoyant pandemic market, and those who have adapted to the new conditions and are coming to market with a competitive price. Sellers who price competitively are much more likely to find a suitable buyer quickly before their home appears stale, and they can often then negotiate on price on any onward purchase.”
Tim Bannister Rightmove’s Director of Property Science
Over the last two weeks, Rightmove’s statistics show no effect on demand but a modest impact on sales activity as movers navigate the latest mortgage rate rises. The number of buyers enquiring to agents about properties for sale is still 6% higher than the same two weeks in the more normal market of 2019, while the number of sales agreed during this period is 6% lower, a slight drop from agreed sales figures being 3% behind 2019’s levels in May. However, it remains to be seen whether the expected further increase in interest rates will impact these figures further.
However, just as rates appeared to be settling, the significant changes in the mortgage market over the last four weeks are creating renewed disruption and uncertainty among movers trying to calculate how much they can afford to borrow and repay. In the last four weeks, the average mortgage rate for a 5-year fixed 85% Loan-To-Value (LTV) mortgage has jumped from 4.56% to 5.20%. This means that a new buyer purchasing a property at the current average asking price would now expect to pay an extra £117 per month if repaying the mortgage over a 25-year term.
By comparison, the average rate for the same mortgage product changed from 4. 50% to 4.52% over the previous four weeks, highlighting how quickly the mortgage market has become more uncertain. This is leading more prospective buyers to check their current affordability, with daily visits to Rightmove’s Mortgage in Principle service up by 53% compared with before the unexpectedly high inflation figures.
“We expected some more twists and turns this year and we’ve had several in the last month, including stubbornly high inflation figures, surprisingly large average wage increases, and their eventual impact on mortgage interest rates and availability. We expect that there may be more change to come depending on this week’s inflation figures and the Bank of England Base Rate decision. It is likely to feel very frenetic for those taking out a mortgage right now, as they try to quickly lock in the best rate that they can find. Although the impact of higher mortgage rates on activity levels has been limited so far, with prospective buyers who can still afford to move appearing determined to go ahead, it remains to be seen how movers will respond to the expected further rate rises. “
Tim Bannister Rightmove’s Director of Property Science
“The number of buyers has remained steady despite some of the challenges currently facing the market, though sales activity has dropped slightly. Sensibly priced properties are still selling well, but we’re now returning to more normal market conditions where homes are taking longer to sell, and buyers have the time and space to come back for a second viewing. We anticipate some more hurdles to overcome in the second half of the year, but it is not all doom and gloom – we’re working with lots of people who are motivated to move and sellers who are pricing right are still seeing a lot of success.”
Michelle Gallagher, Sales Director at JDG in Lancaster
“Although there has been some recent turbulence, I’d still class what we are seeing in the market at the moment as more normal levels of activity after the pandemic. We’re going through a period of transition, and some discretionary sellers in no immediate rush to move are still testing the market with a price as there is a healthy level of buyer activity. However, sellers who are motivated to agree a sale soon need be sensible and market their property in line with their local market conditions. While there is now more choice on the market, we still have more buyers than homes for sale, and the stand-out properties are still attracting a queue of people wanting a viewing.”
Andrew Fenton, Managing Director at Chris Davies Estate Agents in Rhoose
Price & Activity Trends
The first-time buyer monthly mortgage payment is based on Bank of England data of the averages for 90% LTV two-year fixed mortgages from lenders, and the average asking price of a typical first-time buyer home (two bedrooms or fewer) using the Rightmove House Price Index. The equivalent monthly rent is calculated using the same property types (two bedrooms or fewer).
The affordability to buy a first home is based on the Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) dataset from ONS multiplied by 4. 5 to get the typical maximum that a person can borrow from a lender. The average asking price of a typical first-time buyer home is taken from the Rightmove House Price Index.
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what it is, types and functions, differences from cost, factors and stages of pricing
Editor: Pavel Karpov
The amount that the seller wants to receive for the goods
This is the amount of money the seller is willing to sell the item for. It includes the cost of production and allowances.
The price is the money that the seller plans to receive for a product, work or service.
For example, a jeweler sells a piece of jewelry for 13,000 rubles — this will be the price. If the buyer comes on the day of the discount, the price will be lower.
The price consists of the cost price and the seller’s margin. The cost price is the cost expressed in money for the production of goods, the provision of services or the performance of work. Here is what they take into account:
How to calculate the cost price
manufacturing: e.g. raw materials, water and electricity;
lease of premises;
equipment and premises depreciation;
employee salaries and social security contributions;
marketing, promotion expenses;
transportation of goods;
Let’s go back to the example of a jeweler who sells a piece of jewelry for 13,000 rubles.
A jeweler makes jewelry: he buys metal, consumables, rents a workshop for a couple of hours. He spent 10,000 rubles on materials and rent — this is the cost price. To make a profit, he will sell the jewelry with a markup of 3,000 ₽. The price is the cost price with an extra charge, that is, 10,000 ₽ + 3,000 ₽ = 13,000 ₽.
There can be several different prices for one product at the same time. For example, at a vegetable warehouse, an ordinary customer can buy peppers at 120 ₽ per kilogram. Owners of vegetable stalls immediately buy 20 kilograms of peppers: they have a wholesale price of 100 ₽ per kilogram.
Price and value can be considered synonymous in ordinary conversation. Cost is the money that the seller expects to receive for the entire purchase.
For example, the price of a kilogram of peppers is 120 ₽. The client bought five kilograms, the purchase price was 600 ₽.
In economics, cost refers to a certain amount of resources spent on producing a good, performing a job, or providing a service. These resources can be money or, for example, labor hours.
Price is one of the levers of managing the economy. It helps to understand how much the products are in demand in order to effectively manage the budget and production. Let’s consider the price functions in more detail.
Maintains market balance. If there are too many similar products on the market, their price drops. It becomes unprofitable for entrepreneurs and companies to sell them, and they begin to invest in others. Surplus production stops and production of scarce products begins.
Helps distribute money. The price helps the state distribute money between different industries, regions of the country and social groups of the population.
For example, there are highly profitable products – companies earn more from selling them than from ordinary ones. The state establishes an excise tax on them – a tax that must be paid by producers, processors and importers of these goods. Alcohol is a highly profitable product: companies pay tax on it to the budget. This money goes to public needs: for example, to pay state employees.
What is excise and VAT
Allows you to control the development of economic sectors. To encourage the development of production, the state may impose restrictions on sellers of imported goods. For example, to raise customs duties. It will be more profitable to produce goods within the country than to bring them from abroad. The price of a domestic product will be lower than the price of a foreign counterpart.
Attracts investments. Investors invest only in promising industries: where prices are high, profits are high. This is how the market develops.
There are many price classifications. Let’s talk about the most common ones.
International payment method. There are two types of prices: export and import.
Export price. It is established by companies that supply domestic products to other countries.
Import price. It is paid by those who buy products abroad.
According to the method of establishment and influence on the contract. Distinguish between fixed, moving and moving prices.
If a certain amount is specified in the contract, which does not change during the term of the contract, it is called a fixed price.
The prices of some goods are constantly changing: for example, raw materials for industry. Then suppliers can conclude an agreement with enterprises with flexible prices: the agreement specifies the condition that the price will change if the market price of the goods changes.
The market price is the price of a good, work or service, which is formed under the influence of supply and demand. That is, the price reaches the value that buyers are willing to pay for the product.
Trailing prices are often indicated in long-term contracts. The contract does not prescribe the price of the goods, but indicates that it will be provided for at the time of delivery or payment.
According to the degree of state influence. Distinguish between free market and regulated prices.
Free market prices. They are set by manufacturers, importers and sellers based on supply and demand.
Regulated prices. They are limited by the state. The authorities can set a specific price for a product or limit the growth bar. For example, in Russia, the state regulates fares for public transport.
According to the terms of delivery and sale. There is a net price and a gross price.
Net price. This is the “net” price, after deducting discounts and surcharges. In fact, this is the seller’s revenue for the goods.
Gross price. This is the full cost of the product, taking into account additional markups: for example, taxes and insurance. The gross price is sometimes called the gross price.
These concepts are used in various fields. For example, in tourism: net is the price of services for tourists without an intermediary commission, and gross is with an extra charge.
The price is influenced by many factors, the main of which is the cost of production. In addition to it, there are four more key factors that affect pricing:
How to reduce business costs
number of intermediaries;
Number of intermediaries. The price depends on the number of stages that the product goes through before it is bought by the end consumer. The more stages and participants, the higher the price.
The number of stages that the product goes through affects the determination of the final price.
Let’s say Vasily bakes bread. To open a business, he:
Rented a room.
Purchased equipment: ovens, kneaders, proofers, refrigerators, sinks, racks, tables, trays.
I found suppliers of raw materials: flour, eggs, salt, sugar, yeast.
Organized the production, storage and delivery of finished products to the nearest store.
All these stages require investments, which constitute the cost of goods. But the manufacturer wants not only to return the production costs, but also to earn on the sale. Therefore, he makes a markup on the product.
For example, the cost of a loaf of white bread is 20 ₽. To make a profit, Vasily will deliver it to the store at a price of 25 ₽. 5 ₽ — markup.
If Vasyl had produced and sold tobacco products, he would have had to pay an excise tax, an indirect tax. To beat back the cost, you need to raise the price – a pack of cigarettes would no longer cost 25 ₽, but at least 27 ₽.
Back to bread. There is another tax that increases the price – VAT. Usually it is paid by companies on the main taxation system or the unified agricultural tax. But individual entrepreneurs can also pay it if they import goods from abroad or buy from sellers on the main taxation system.
Vasily delivered rolls to the store at 25 ₽, but they did not sell well. He decided to buy raw materials directly from French manufacturers in order to improve the quality of baked goods. Now he is a tax agent and is forced to pay VAT – bread will have to be sold for 30 ₽.
Sometimes an intermediary appears in this scheme. For example, wholesalers buy clothes from manufacturers and resell them to stores. When reselling, they make a markup. The store also wants to receive income from the sale, so they make their own.
The store buys bread from Vasily for 28 ₽ — this price includes the cost of production, the manufacturer’s margin and part of VAT. To make a profit, he sells goods for 3 ₽ more. As a result, the retail price of the product that the end consumer sees is 31 ₽.
The shortest path along the pricing chain is domestic products that are not labeled and sold directly from the manufacturer: they have only one markup.
Demand. The more people who want to buy a product, the higher the price. And vice versa: lack of demand lowers the price. In economics, the term “use value” is used to assess demand. This is the usefulness of the product, its ability to satisfy any human need. The use value has no set units of measurement, utility can be low, high, or expressed in a specific action – for example, to feed a person.
What determines the demand for a product
The uniqueness of the product. If there are no competitors in the segment or the production of goods is limited, high prices can be set. For example, for things from a limited collection, buyers will pay more than from a regular one. There are no restrictions on the size of the markup: it is usually set after market analysis.
What is the difference between margin and markup
Season. In the high season, the business offers more products and sets low prices. For example, strawberries are more accessible and cheaper in summer than in winter.
Decide what you want to achieve. For example, a company is bringing yogurts to the market in a neighboring region. In order for customers to try new yogurt instead of the usual one, you can set the price below competitors, and after a while – raise it to the market one.
Dumping: why sellers artificially lower prices
If the goal of a business is to set a fair market price, then the pricing algorithm can consist of the following four steps.
Analyze competitors. You need to determine the range of prices for their offers and understand what qualities determine such a price.
Analyze the target audience, determine the demand for your goods, works or services. Highlight your competitive advantages, find the most similar offer on the market, if any.
Calculate the cost of production – what will be the unit cost of your product. To do this, calculate the consumption of raw materials, materials, labor and other resources per unit of product.
Select a pricing method. There are only three of them: costly, valuable and passive. Let’s talk about them in more detail.
Cost method. The approach focuses on the costs of producing and selling the product. For calculation, you can take:
average cost, for example, for three months of business operation;
marginal cost – use the maximum fixed costs for this period in order to prevent a decrease in profits in the future;
standard cost for your industry – you’ll have to take a closer look at the competition.
The profit at which the business is ready to operate is added to the cost.
Value method. The price is formed based on the value that your offer represents for the consumer. In other words, you need to imagine how much the buyer would be willing to pay for this product in the store. To make the forecast more realistic, it is worth knowing the opinions of several people from different social strata.
The value of the offer may vary, for example, depending on the season or conditions. So, you are ready to sell a magnet with the city hall for 50 ₽. But during the tourist season, the value of this magnet increases, so it would be appropriate to set the price at 100 ₽.
Passive method. This approach involves simply following the market. You need to find the most similar product and set a similar price. Then you can change it following the general change in market prices.
Your cost, the value of the offer, and the overall market movement all affect the price at the same time. Therefore, the most winning strategy will be a combination of all three methods.
The price is the amount that the seller charges for the item.
The price consists of the cost of the product and the trade margin.
Prices depend on the demand for the product and regulate it. The price has other functions that allow you to predict costs, distribute the budget between different industries or stimulate their development.
Price is affected by cost of production, customer value proposition, and general market movement.
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What is happening on the market and how it will affect prices
What a trap the sellers of new buildings have fallen into
Prices are stagnating now. Downward they are not allowed to go by high cost, and up – declining demand. It is weak and limited by the changed mortgage conditions. And there are no reasons for the growth in the cost of new buildings in the short term. Moreover, an increased discount of 40% is spreading on the market. This was told by the director of the “New buildings” direction of “INCOM-Nedvizhimost” Valery Kochetkov.
– This is due to the fact that the number of apartments that are sold under the assignment (when the primary rights to housing are transferred to the new owner) is increasing. Since the beginning of the year, their number has increased by 20%. Last year, 70% of transactions in the primary segment were for sale with the help of subsidized mortgages from the developer. With its registration, the price of an apartment increased by 20-30%, – was noted by Valery Kochetkov.
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Today, those buyers who did not calculate their mortgage payments or decided that they need other housing in terms of parameters and location turned out to be hostages of the situation. It is impossible to sell such an apartment at a price above the market and even at market value.
— We see that people first put up for sale housing at the price of DDU in the hope that a buyer will be found, but then they have to offer a 40% discount and incur losses. At the same time, no more than 15% of buyers choose this option – the purchase of an apartment by assignment, – told Valery Kochetkov.
What will happen to prices for new buildings after May 1
May itself, due to the holidays and the opening of the summer season, often sags in terms of the level of transactions relative to the coming months. But market participants know these features, and price reductions should not be expected. As an option, developers may announce short-term promotions during the May holidays to stimulate transactions during this period. This forecast was made by the head of the department of marketing research of the company “Glavstroy-Regions” Victoria Kovalevskaya.
New buildings will not become cheaper. Photo © TASS / Semyon Likhodeev
— Prices on the primary market are not expected to fall. Especially in the high-budget segment, since many components are still imported. Especially when it comes to finishing materials. The exchange rate and logistics put pressure on the price, – says Roman Amelin, sales director of the premium real estate agency Point Estate.
In the first quarter, demand continued to recover. The increase in March was 10% compared to February. Compared to the fourth quarter of last year, home sales in the capital increased by 4%. At the same time, the cost per square meter in the company’s projects in the Moscow region grew by a total of 4.5% over three months, which is mainly due to an increase in the construction readiness of facilities. Such data was provided by Elina Khannanova, Deputy Sales Director of the Granel Group of Companies.
She noted that in order to stimulate demand, developers also keep special offers. They apply to a limited pool of apartments, but this allows you to maintain buying activity. In a number of projects, the maximum benefit is up to 21%, but its average size is about 11%.
— Real estate prices depend on demand. In May, activity among buyers of the housing market is traditionally low: long weekends with occasional holidays and the beginning of the summer season affect. In the second half of May, interest in the market wakes up, but in general this month is considered low. Due to the quite predictable cooling of demand in May, no one will lower prices, however, I see no reason for an increase. I think there will be stagnation0080 – says Alexey Plyuta, director of economics and finance at the Megalit corporation.
Since the beginning of 2023, demand in the housing market has decreased, but this has not led to a decrease in prices. Decrease in the price of housing under the existing rules of project financing, controlled by banks, can not. This is fraught with a delay in lending up to a stop. Therefore, in May, housing prices will continue to rise. The secondary housing market is more independent of the control of banks. It is also more volatile than the primary, i.e. prices in the secondary market change more over the same period. This opinion was expressed by Vladislav Preobrazhensky, executive director of the Moscow Investors Club.
Will apartments on the secondary market continue to fall in price from May 1?
This year the average prices on the secondary market practically do not change. Now there are no prerequisites for a fall in the cost of housing in the secondary segment. The market is stable, demand is active, there is no panic and excitement, sellers and buyers make balanced decisions and are ready to provide a discount. This is how the director of the “Secondary Market” direction of “INCOM-Real Estate” Sergei Shloma sees the situation.
Photo © TASS / Dmitry Feoktistov
According to his estimates, March demand was 27% higher than February, and April also shows good performance. Of course, the activation of the secondary market is due to the transition of customers from the segment of new buildings.
— Possible subsidized mortgages on the secondary market, which are now being discussed, will also help increase demand, although prices will not be drastically affected. In our opinion, price jumps on the secondary market are unlikely. There can be no significant decline, since demand is stable, but still, supply is significantly higher than demand. In addition, the market was extremely overheated in 2020–2021, so we do not predict price increases, – added by Sergey Shloma.
Prime Life Development Managing Partner Denis Konovalenko believes that in the future the depreciation of real estate in the secondary market may increase. However, until the preferential mortgage mechanism for it is approved, such a reduction will not provide fundamental competition to new buildings.
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